At the start of the tournament I rather rashly made a set of predictions as to how the World Cup would end up (although I sensibly avoided making any predictions as to how we would get there…) With the group stages almost complete it’s time to review them and see if I would make the same calls now.
I tipped India to win and, in spite of the tie with England and defeat by South Africa, I still think that that’s a reasonable call. They are clearly very reliant on their top order and a couple of bowlers and could get found out on a more bowler friendly track, but the quality of their top order players should make sure that they can set, and chase, imposing totals. That said, they could just as easily bow out in the quarter finals, such is the tightness of the competition.
Sri Lanka were my favoured beaten finalists, but I’m not so sure that that will be the case now. They were surprisingly beaten by Pakistan and, with the game against Australia abandoned due to rain, they haven’t really been tested in any other games. The risk for any side coming out of Group A is that it has been a relatively easy ride and I’m no longer so confident that Sri Lanka will prevail in knock out matches.
The beaten semi-finalists that I named were England and Australia. Much could, and will, be written about the weirdness of England’s tournament, but if they get out of the group then I would back them to do well. What they have shown is an ability to compete with the better sides and this may stand them in good stead in the knock out phases. The only problem is that there is a very real possibility of them failing to make it out of their group. Australia, on the other hand, have had it pretty easy, especially with the abandonment against Sri Lanka, and may be insufficiently hardened by the time they come to play their quarter-final. I remain convinced that their pace attack is an accident waiting to happen, but semi-finals still seems reasonable.
I was rather harsh on South Africa in tipping them to only reach the quarter-finals, but their implosion against England gave some indication of the problems that they face. They showed a lot of character in the win against India, firstly by forcing the spectacular Indian collapse and then by overhauling the target from a difficult position. They will have been pleased with the performance of Robin Peterson in particular and should have a strong say in the final destination of the trophy.
The other quarter-finalists were New Zealand, Bangladesh and Pakistan, with the West Indies tipped not to progress. In fact the West Indies have been a revelation, with Benn, Sammy and Roach all bowling excellently. They may well qualify, but it is hard to see them getting past the quarter-finals. Of the others, New Zealand have played an astonishing mix of turgid and spectacular cricket, Bangladesh were woeful against the West Indies but somehow snatched a famous victory against England and Pakistan are, well, Pakistan. It is hard to see any of them seriously competing at the business end of the tournament.
The beauty of this tournament, though, unlike the processions in 2007 and 2003, is that no-one has any idea who will win it. All sides have their weaknesses and much will depend on who makes the most of the conditions and, quite probably, who gets lucky at the right time. The excellent decision to do away with the turgid Super 8 phase and go straight into the quarter-finals also adds an element of excitement that has been sorely lacking in recent events. Bring it on.
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