It's preview time

It takes a lot to shift the fundamentally pessimistic nature of an English cricket follower. Those of us who lived through the ineptitude of the second half of the eighties, during which time England won only one test, through the tenures of Ted Dexter, Ray Illingworth and David Lloyd and who remember the boos echoing round the Oval in 1999 bear scars that have taken a long time to heal. For those whose stock in trade is jokes about the state of English cricket the events in the UAE in the winter must have come as a blessed relief, but there is no doubt about it: this is a formidable cricket team. 

A year ago it was the all conquering Indians who were going to put us firmly in our place. One glance at the cricinfo message boards would have sent England scurrying for cover such was the misplaced optimism of the Tendulkarati, but by the end of the summer it was England who were leaping about in slightly embarrassing fashion as the World champions (credit where credit is due) slunk out of the back door of the Oval. 

A few short weeks ago the bloggerati were at it again, convinced that England’s run of success in fifty over cricket was about to brought to a juddering halt by an Australian juggernaut boasting Xavier Doherty and Peter Forrest. Shane Watson took it upon himself to take on the Glenn McGrath role with some ill-advised observations about England’s balance (which may, of course, have been proven correct had Australia managed to get down to England’s number seven), but the outcome was decidedly chastening for a side that suddenly found that they had rather more problems than they had previously thought. 

And so we come to the South Africans. They have a rich vein of talent running through their side, but I can’t help feeling that they are being talked up in the way that both India and Australia were before them (although I would be amazed if the series turned out to be as one-sided). For all of Gary Kirsten’s pronouncements about their ‘perfect’ preparation (and, to be fair to Kirsten, it’s hard to know what else he could have said), they feel undercooked, a victim both of the schedule and of the poor weather, and in a three match series you have to hit the ground running, as England found to their cost in the winter.  There are also vulnerabilities – for all of Graeme Smith’s capacity for proving the aesthetes wrong the opening partnership feels slightly sketchy, Jacques Kallis has a poor record in England although, of course, he will be seeking to address that and there is a very real risk that the decision to give the gloves to AB De Villiers will reduce his effectiveness as a batsman while also saddling the Proteas with a sub-standard keeper and taking away their best fielder. Even through the selection of JP Duminy theoretically strengthen the batting and protects a rather long tail, his record against England is poor and he has only played one test in the last two years. 

The effects of the loss of Mark Boucher will provide a fascinating sub-plot. His was a horrible injury and an awful way for his career to finish, but in truth he has never been in the top bracket as a keeper batsman. His keeping, although it improved through his career, was good without being outstanding, the Akmal-esque comedy of his early career being superseded by high competence and his batting, while very effective on its day, patchy and has largely fallen away over the last couple of years. Where his influence was felt most, and will be most keenly missed, was as the focal point of the team, the gutsy character who acted as a confidante to the captain and whose importance in the dressing room, we are told, was inestimable. 

South Africa’s bowling has been the most hyped facet of their play, and with a certain amount of justification. Dale Steyn is a truly excellent fast bowler with natural pace, the ability to move the ball and a nasty, skidding bouncer. Not for nothing is he the number one bowler in the world. Vernon Philander has made a stellar start to his test cricketer, bowling an excellent line and, at times, obtaining extravagant movement, but facing England in England represents an entirely different challenge. The conditions should suit him but he will also be against batsmen who are more at home against pace than spin and it should be the biggest hurdle of his career so far – if he thrives then South Africa will be right in the series. Morne Morkel had the worst imaginable start to his tour and probably wakes up in the night thinking of Peter Trego’s extravagant tattoos – he is a very handy bowler, generating uncomfortable bounce, but there is a touch of the Steve Harmison about him and England will look to score off him. Finally there is Imran Tahir, who ironically came to prominence playing county championship cricket, a useful leg spinner but, again, a bowler that England will look to attack. 

None of this, of course, is to say that England are perfect or that the series will be a walk in the park. Ravi Bopara gets another chance to kick start his test career and England look stronger with him at six rather than Jonny Bairstow – he looks a more mature and compact batsman than he did even a year ago but the South African pacemen will look to target him early in his innings, especially playing away from his body outside off stump. The only other sub-plot is whether England will go with Steven Finn or Tim Bresnan – the likelihood is Bresnan, but Finn would add another dimension to the attack and his chance will have to come sooner or later. 

The final imponderable, of course, is the weather, but assuming that the deluge ceases at some point then 2-0 to England is the prediction. Bring it on.