And so to Perth

As far as I can tell, Australia have never arrived at Melbourne for the Boxing Day test with the Ashes already gone, but this is the fate that will befall them if they cannot recover from Adelaide and lose at Perth, something that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

When England arrived in Perth four years ago it was off the back of a soul destroying defeat in Adelaide and, having made some changes, they were comfortably beaten. They even changed their left arm spinner, although I suspect that even Michael Beer’s parents would admit that Monty Panesar has a bit more pedigree than their son. Panesar took five wickets in the first innings before being taken apart by Adam Gilchrist in the second – I suspect that even the most optimistic Australian supporter would settle for Beer taking five wickets in the match this week.

There has also been much speculation as to the nature of the pitch. The groundsman (curator, if you prefer) has said that he wants to get more pace into the pitch, and there have been various rumours as to how much grass is likely to be left on, but it’s difficult to escape the conclusion that anything that suits the Australian seamers will suit England every bit as well and, on performances so far at least, possibly rather better. Although Peter Siddle had an outstanding first day at Brisbane and Ryan Harris bowled pretty well at Adelaide there has been a hint of re-arranging the deckchairs on the Titanic about the selectors’ fast bowling whims. With Mojo Mitch having not played any cricket since his Brisbane debacle it is difficult to see how he could have improved sufficiently to play in this test, but the likelihood seems to be that he will. If he struggles here, though, then the selectors really will be up a certain creek without a certain implement.

England, though, will need to guard against complacency but with the two Andys (well, Andrew and Andy, but that doesn’t have the same ring to it) in charge then it seems highly unlikely that they will be getting carried away. They will miss Stuart Broad, who has bowled a lot better than his figures suggest and tends to grow into series, and will be slightly concerned at the wicketless performances of the reserve seamers in Melbourne, although they weren’t helped by a sluggish pitch and the butter-fingered performance of the gloveless Matt Prior. With Ajmal Shahzad seemingly out of the running it would appear to be a toss-up between Tremlett and Bresnan: if the pitch is bouncy then the height and extra bounce of Tremlett, who has bowled well in his limited opportunities on tour, could be of great value, but Bresnan could operate effectively into the wind, can bowl long, containing, spells and, of course, offers rather more with the bat. Personally I would go with Tremlett, but the England management know the conditions and the relevant strengths of the two players.

So, what’s my prediction? There is a general feeling that the Australians will bounce back, but I’m not sure that they have the character to do it. Adelaide on its own will have taken a lot out of them, but the second innings at Brisbane has also made a considerable psychological dent. They’ve also lost four out of their last five tests which, as England know of old, is a hard cycle to break. They will need to start well, take their chances and hope for some luck, but if things start going against them then expect heads to drop pretty quickly. I’m going to put my neck on the line and say that I expect England to win. Get your money on Australia.