Looking forward to Melbourne

Gideon Haigh once described Christmas Day in Melbourne as Boxing Day Test Eve and with the series having been brought back to life in spectacular fashion in Perth there will be rather more Melbournians enjoying Christmas with one eye looking forward to events at the MCG than might have been the case a couple of weeks ago.

The Boxing Day test is iconic. I’ve been to a World Cup Final and tests at a number of venues, including more Lord’s tests than I can count, but it remains high on my ‘To Do’ list. My friend Trev emailed me earlier in the week to outline his post-Christmas itinerary – as a member of the Melbourne Cricket Club he will be attending three of the first four days and, in between lunch in the Long Room and numerous bar stops, will be keeping a watchful eye on the cricket. I’m hoping for a few first hand observations to create the illusion that I have been up all night...
So, what of the cricket. Australia’s comeback in Perth was remarkable but now we shall find out how much that was about the conditions and how much about the quality of their cricket. The expected slow, low deck may count against them as it will reduce the effectiveness of their pace attack and bring the spinners into play, but if they can get the ball moving around as they did at Perth then they will still be a fearsome proposition. The sheer size of the MCG may count against them, however, since the stands will prevent any significant breeze from reaching the playing area. Given that Ricky Ponting will almost certainly play the only decision that they have to make will be whether or not to bring Michael Beer into the side and, if so, who for. In 2009, of course, their four man pace attack blew England away at Headingley only to come horribly unstuck at the Oval, so it could be a vital decision.

As for England, the one thing in their favour is that in recent times they have tended to come back hard after defeats and they will be looking to put Perth behind them. With Jimmy Anderson fit, the only change that seems likely is Bresnan for Finn, which will bolster the lower order and may be more effective in Melbourne anyway. I would back England to bounce back but if Australia can continue to bowl with the menace and control that they showed in Perth then it could be a tough challenge for them.

My prediction? Having seen my prediction of an England win come horribly unstuck at Perth I’m going to tempt fate – England to win and retain the Ashes.