Australia are in a better place than they were a month ago: the series with England will have restored some much needed confidence and they look a good deal happier than the ragged, baggy green clad band that finished the final test at Sydney. The worry for them is that the series against England represents a false dawn, for all in the Australian set-up is not rosy.
Their first problem is the bowling. To go into a World Cup in the sub-continent with only one specialist spinner in the squad, who has only played one previous one day international and was too profligate for the test side suggests a triumph of hope over experience. The reliance on wild and wooly pacemen also looks naïve – any one of Brett Lee, Shaun Tait and Mitchell Johnson is capable of bowling a match winning spell, but they are each also prone to spraying the ball around and on slower, lower pitches could be a liability. They lack a bowler who will be able to bring them control, a man to whom Ricky Ponting can throw the ball in the confidence that he might be able to restore order when all is falling to pieces. This was particularly highlighted in the series against Sri Lanka a few months ago and there is no sign of it having been addressed.
The batting, also, is not the juggernaut that it once was. There were some good batting displays against England, but at least two games were rescued by innings from players who aren’t in the squad (and the selection of Ferguson over Marsh looks a little odd) and they also have the question of what to do with Ricky Ponting. It is a given that he will return to the side, almost certainly at number three, but his form has not been good, he hasn’t played any limited overs cricket for months and there is also the risk, regardless of the rhetoric coming out of the camp, that the happy side that Michael Clarke has been leading successfully for the last few weeks may be undermined by his return. With out Mike Hussey to stabilize the middle order it is almost impossible to see them winning their fourth World Cup in a row.
Much depends on: Shane Watson is incredibly important to this side, as his second successive Allan Border Medal shows. At his best he is devastating at the top of the order and his bowling can be very effective. The conditions should suit him and he may well represent Australia’s best chance of glory.
Verdict: Semi-finals at best.
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