If New Zealand were in Group B then they would be at serious risk of being eliminated in the first round, for their form has been dismal of late. There were glimmers of a revival in the 3-2 defeat by Pakistan, but the humiliating whitewash in Bangladesh was indicative of a side at odds both with itself and the conditions. Daniel Vettori’s decision to give up the captaincy after the tournament is not as sinister as it may appear, for he claims that he reached the decision some time ago, but it remains to be seen what impact it will have on the team.
The main problem is one of inconsistency. On his day Brendon McCullum can be as destructive an opener as anyone is world cricket, but his day doesn’t come around as often as his team and its supporters would like. The same is true of the highly talented Ross Taylor and Jesse Ryder, both of whom are capable of winning games more or less off their own bats but who don’t deliver often enough for New Zealand to string together runs of victories. There is some cause for optimism in the steady improvement of Martin Guptill and the exciting talent of Kane Williamson, and there is scope for big hitting down the order from Jacob Oram and Tim Southee, but the batting is a worry, especially if Scott Styris fails.
The bowling lacks stars, Vettori aside, but there are plenty of options. Tim Southee is improving but the retirement of Shane Bond has left the pace attack short of a spearhead. Nathan McCullum is a handy one day off spinner and Woodcock, Styris, Oram and Ryder will all provide useful alternatives for Vettori, but it is hard to see where many wickets will come from. As has often been the case over the years they look a couple of players short of making any sort of serious challenge.
Much depends on: It seems rather obvious, but much will hinge on Daniel Vettori as a bowler, batsman and all round inspiration.
Verdict: Quarter-finals
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