Climbing off the fence

Keen readers (if such a thing exists) will note that in my ‘Preview’ post I was fairly cagey about predicting the outcome of the series and, not being one who is inclined to gamble, I’m fairly loathe to get too bogged down in predicting the outcome of the series. However, given that one of the purposes of writing a blog is so that people can point in laugh in future, I shall break the habit of a lifetime.

Being something of a cricket geek (a ‘tragic’ in Australian terms), my first thoughts were of history. England last won a series in Australia against a full strength side by more than one test in 1970/71, and that was, technically, a seven test series, although one of them was completely washed out. As an aside, it’s also notable as the series in which England weren’t awarded a single LBW decision.

That’s not that useful a fact, though, given that England have only won two series in Australia since then, and one of them was the Packer assisted 5-1 hammering in 1978/79. It’s also quite interesting, if completely irrelevant, that on every other occasion since the First World War that England have won in Australia they have done so by a margin of at least two tests.

Where does this geekiness leave us, then? Brisbane is crucial, although more so for Australia than England, as I shall cover in more detail in the run up to the test. Assuming that all is well, however, I’m going to predict an England series win by three tests to one.

Get yourselves to the bookies to put money on Australia...