The Importance of Brisbane

We’re almost there now: the phoney war will soon be at an end, the speculation can end and I can get on with writing about cricket rather than conjecture.

Much has been made of England’s poor record at Brisbane, and not without due cause, but we all need to come to terms with the fact that there is little point, at the moment, in comparing this series with those of the last twenty years or so, for in each of those Australia were demonstrably the better side and firm favourites before the series started. England haven’t always helped themselves in the first test, mind you, with Nasser Hussain’s bizarre decision to bowl first in 2002, a decision that was compounded by the injury to Simon Jones, and Steve Harmison’s memorable first ball wide in 2006.

The last time that the two sides were evenly matched was in 1986/7, when they were each as mediocre as each other. Brisbane then saw a marked swing in the expected course of the series, with an England side that had been written off completing a famous victory off the back of Ian Botham’s last great test innings. For all of the events that have followed, that was the last time that the result at Brisbane really determined the momentum of the series. Until now, that is.

It is difficult to escape the conclusion that this test is more important for Australia than England. England have a recent track record, not least in the last two home Ashes series, of bouncing back well from poor first test performances, and they seem to be the stronger side mentally. If Australia win then it will give them some much needed confidence and could give them the momentum to go on and win the series, but if they lose then they may unravel completely under the weight of public opprobrium. As an aside, by my reckoning the last time Australia won a series after losing the first test was in England in 1997.  Mind you, that should be qualified by acknowledging that for a long time it was unusual for them to lose tests at all.

So, where am I going with this? Essentially, my point is this: both sides will be desperate to win at Brisbane, but a defeat for England would be less catastrophic than it would be for Australia. We can only wait and watch…